a "minor" worry.
ok. by now all probably now of tomorrow's demonstration by the opposition. for some reason, i have a nagging - albeit extremely minor - fear thumping at the back of my head that there is a non-zero probability of tomorrow turning into another september 1993*.
unfortunately, i have no feasible method of gauging whether that fear is justified or not - i hope it is just pathetic paranoia. but if it does happen, i don't know if hezbollah will be able to contain any reactions the way it did in 1993.
*the lebanese army shot seven hezbollah members (who died of their wounds) during a demonstration.
guns fired.
in zkak el blat (near downtown beirut), guns were fired in response to hezballah's call for demonstrations tomorrow.
they may have been amal members (that's just conjecture based on who fired guns in that same area some time back when march 14 agreed to having berri as speaker of parliament)
visa "metrics"
circa two years ago, there was around a three day delay between taking an appointment to the us embassy for a visa and the actual appointment.
seven months ago this was around a week.
two weeks the delay was thirty days.
two days ago the delay was sixty three days.
---
hiwar dialogues
groups A and B decide on having a hiwar.Together, peppered with the spices of "national unity": yes, let's have hiwar
hiwar "happens"Group A: We must stop hiwar. The other side is trying to impose the will of other countries on us.
hiwar "stops". Groups A and B up the ante. Country is worried.Group A: We should have hiwar to reduce the tension.
hiwar "happens"Group A: We must stop hiwar. The other side is trying to impose the will of other countries on us.
hiwar "stops". Groups A and B up the ante. Country is worried.Group A: We should have hiwar to reduce the tension.
ad infinitum
odd.
out of everything that has happened over the past month, this piece of news worried me the most:
Lebanon's Muslim religious leaders gathered at the Druze sect's headquarters in Beirut Tuesday to denounce the political deadlock plaguing the country and its "negative and dangerous repercussions." The summit was attended by Grand Mufti Sheikh Mohammad Rashid Qabbani, Higher Shiite Council vice president Sheikh Abdel-Amir Qabalan, and Sheikh Akl Naim Hassan.
questions.
what does it mean to be a "christian" politician? over the past week, a few newspapers have chimed in suggesting / reporting that the "christian" politicians must unite. the dailystar just had a comment today about something of the sort
unfortunately - or for some, fortunately - i have no idea what that means. unite against what? unite for what aim? what is a "christian" politician? someone who represents the christians? why should there be only one representative viewpoint? why should such a politician only aim at representing christians?
i'm at a loss for answers ... really, this is beyond my level of comprehension.
see, in my
skewed perspective, i really don't care if a "christian" politician has a viewpoint which contradicts that of another "christian" politician. there will always be differences of opinions; more fundamentally, there will always be struggles for power. and that isn't a lebanese singularity.
however, what i do care about is the availability of an arena for such politicians to voice their differences in (and just for completeness, that arena should not be sfeir).
currently, there is no "nonviolent" arena (well, there was the hiwar ...). the main arena available to any two groups that disagree is the street, in terms of protests and clashes; many will agree that is a recipe for potential disaster. having "christian" politicians unite is inconsequential in the long run, because it isn't a solution to much.
(unfortunately, i'm not sure if anything will solve this issue as long as ex-warlords are still in the picture.)
march 14 and sustainability
i wasn't going to post anything more today, as i've been soaked with work and studies - i'm trying to finish up two months worth of deadlines in the remaining two weeks before leaving here - and as a break i decided to skim through the dailystar.
this article caught my attention, as its content was in a way expected. there will be some who say that march 14 lost because of this, just as how some said on thursday that march 14 had won; however, none of these commentators have provided a metric of victory, and thus such discussions are meaningless.
more importantly, however, such an incident resonates with the notion that march 14 is disconnected from any strategic meaning. there have been several moments in the past two years that could have been seized by march 14 to garner additional support, which is needed to reach their goals, yet their static tactics are unproductive in an environment that never ceases to evolve.
at each of these moments, march 14 has failed to take the "road not taken." it is not a sign of political acumen when the same politicians over the past two years repeat the same rhetoric and the same phrases and conduct the same verbal attacks at the same enemies, without any form of strategic advancement. although the rough and tough attitude displayed in gemayel's funeral may have appealed to a majority of the crowd, such appeal is short-lived as it introduced naught to life. would the crowds have been disappointed if the march 14 members who had spoken had, for once, changed the tone and substance of their speeches, as opposed to including elements of predictable and unconstructive belligerency? more importantly - and this is key - how would other people, who have till now resisted from associating themselves with the leaders of the march 14 movement, reacted?
one of the main problem with these leaders is that they have failed to reach beyond their core supporters and to
present themselves as a set of viable leaders. time will eventually tell if i am wrong, but their intransigent actions of the past two years continue to support the hypothesis that they are not fundamentally interested in creating a sustainable state, simply because it does not serve their overarching goals.
quote.
the common denominator between a turkey and michel aoun is that they are both overrated.
- a friend who is not very fond of turkey, and who obviously is not a big fan of aoun.
synopsis of speeches.
various figures from march 14 gave speeches during pierre gemayel's funeral yesterday. the dailystar has an ok
summary of what was said, for those who don't want to read them in their entirety.
Cluster bomb ...
...blast wounds mine clearing experts in Lebanon.
Article from
Ha'aretz.
political misnomers.
i do not feel comfortable with the MSM's constant use of the pro-syrian and anti-syrian misnomers, but i understand that they don't have the time/patience/need to dwelve deeply into local dynamics in order to develop more structured analysis.
that said however, it is a shame that some of the commentators (who are familiar with the lebanese context) out there - in the blogosphere and beyond - simplistically insist on dividing all dynamics into pro-syrianism and anti-syrianism. such rhetoric is reductionalist, unconstructive, and meaningless, as it does nothing to shed light on the underlying mechanisms that intertwine the local and global scene. politics floats on several dimensions, and reducing it to a purely syrian dimension results in a loss of information; it also symbolizes the possible subconscious unwillingness (or in some cases, inability) of the said commentators to constructively and responsibly analyze internal lebanese dynamics.
mental freedom is an order of magnitude more important that just physical freedom - and as such, is also much more difficult to obtain - but this will only be achieved when the innate syrian dependence in your thought process is chipped away.
"interesting" quote.
National unity is stronger than their weapons, their crimes and their terrorism.
Saad Hariri, during Pierre Gemayel's funeral.
Pictures of the funeral of pierre gemayel can be see
here.
the machiavellians.
it is telling when a group of warlords point fingers and claim righteousness when a young man is brutally killed. what is more disturbing however is the machiavellian "intellectuals" who expect that riding the tailcoats of warlords to a sovereign and independent lebanon is the way to go. they see a goal (which most us do share) and sincerely believe their path is the "smart one", yet i wonder if they realize that they have been walking on a treadmill for the past two years.
pierre's death is being politicized (as were the other political assassinations, and as were the 1000 killed in the summer war), but to what end is a question everyone should be asking. it is definitely not to a "better lebanon" - though the current mirage being presented is quite fascinating - because the recent political actions are not necessarily about "lubnan awwalan" - regardless of how many times certain media outlets repeat that statement. the aims of these warlords and their surrogate father will eventually diverge, but the underlying political mechanisms and dynamics will remain the same (within certain bounds). in the meantime, the machiavellians will continue to "intelligently" tread their treadmill, even though they will not be any closer to their goal.
enjoy your thursday. it promises to be an interesting day.
a reduction in security
apparently, pierre gemayel had specifically asked to be security-less on his last trip. time will eventually determine which side of the truth fatfat's comments concerning this are actually on.
In a bitter twist of fate, the late Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel, who usually made a habit of being accompanied by police protection at all times, had asked his security detail to stand down Tuesday, acting Interior Minister Ahmad Fatfat revealed Wednesday.
"Sheikh Pierre was always accompanied by a security convoy but he asked not to be escorted by police on his last tour," Fatfat told reporters following a security meeting at the Grand Serail.
...
Fatfat did not explain why Gemayel had told his security to stand down.
it will not lead to a civil war.
this assassination will not cause a civil war. at least i hope not.
that is not to say there won't be clashes (like the ones over the past year, and some of which have already started to happen between the kataeb and the ssnp) and rabid tension.
the tipping point is one step closer. eventually, the situation will reach a point when the feudal warlords will not be able to reign in their supporters.
how long it takes to get there, if we do get there, is anyone's guess ...
parallels of assassinations.
1975: unidentified gunmen fired on phalangist leaders, killing four, in what some say was an attempt on pierre gemayel's life.
2006: unidentified gunmen assassinate pierre gemayel.
may he rest in peace.
terry waite.
bbc's "on this day" section highlights events from the past that took place ... well, on this day. so bbc has focused on
terry waite's release, who was freed exactly 15 years ago. for those interested, there are a few cool videos and audio tracks.
the current state of the lebanese republic.
(somewhere in Beirut...)
the squirrels of lebanon.
for some reason, the flurry of action in the lebanese political scene reminds me of the way squirrels act. they are always hyperactive, jump around at all angles, run towards the closest piece of food they can see, and tend to care only for their own survival. and every now and then, they get run over - or in the politicians' case, overrun. it's just a matter of time.
so they resigned.
it is after all, hezbollah's and amal's right to resign (there is also a chance that they will rejoin ...). however, segmenting the past and the future is ill-fated, in that history has already proven to be a thorough commentator on the potentials of the constantly growing rift between various factions within lebanon. moreover, the lack of institutional precedent in which to express such "disagreements" casts a shadow over the next few days, and taking to the streets - which fpm and hezbollah (and others) seem to be tilting towards - is indeed another push towards the coming tipping point. there is nothing constructive to say concerning the situation - since information at this moment is still lacking - so i will poke fun at my second favorite punching bag, samir geagea, who, in light of his (and others of course) recent antagonistic and almost war monger comments, stated that he doesn't "know who is spreading a climate of fear and tension as if something is about to happen." give me a break.
i can't help but note (and i may be mistaken) that there seems to be a certain ignorance towards the potential repercussions of settling disputes through demonstrations and of using crowds in the attempt to achieve a knockout, which is irresponsible to say the least, and borders on treachery to say the most. it is increasingly saddening that the causes of the various forms of intercommunal conflict and tensions within lebanon were never touched upon nor dealt with over the past decades, and as is expected with such blind disregard to the resulting social pathologies, the chickens have unfortunately come home to roost.
and the beat goes on.
please, just ...
and in less "mature" nations ...
... the notion of constructivess is lost ...
Saad Hariri to say that "clearly this is an Iranian decision, to either quit or take to the street. Take to the street then and take responsibility for that."
Raad responded by saying that "if that were true, we would not have waited until now."
Druze leader Walid Jumblatt responded by saying, "you have orders from Iran and you have to execute them on time."
Berri then suggested a 15-minute break, after which talks were postponed until Thursday.
pull out the popcorn guys. thursday promises to be equally fun.
when nations mature ...
this
story may not be much, since those in the UAE still have much to do in terms of developing a civil oriented society, but it is definitely a start.
All necessary measures must be taken to ensure the rights of expatriate workers are protected and their living and working conditions are significantly improved ...
...
And in a groundbreaking move, he instructed the Naturalisation and Residency Department to implement special contracts between domestic workers (servants and housemaids) and their employers that limit their working hours and grant them their full rights.
...
some are itching to pull that trigger.
this hasn't really been recent news, but it becomes slightly more disturbing when things you hear from friends are published in newspapers (in this case, Al-Akhbar) ...
