21 Comments:

• I would disagree with the assertion that both stood for the same principles and that Aouns' positions were motivated by a pure lust for power. I am not sure that even today Aoun has an understanding of what democracy and sovereignty is all about besides the fact that a Maronite should be the president. It appears that his whole objective is to take advantage of the sectarian distrust and fear. Jumblatt on the other hand is driven by what is good for individual liberty, a modern democratic state and the sovereignty of an independent nation.
  
  Laz, please remember what we exchanged on your blog a few days ago, one does not support Jumblatt or any politician for purely personal attributes, we have to offer our support to ideas and concepts. If Jumblatt deviates from these ideas then we withdraw our support. That is the only way for a democracy to function. Hold the politicians responsible for their actions. If Aoun espouses the same concepts then the question of trust personality and even charisma will play a role.
  
  Jumblatt for President!!!!

  By  Anonymous, at 11:06 AM  

• Laz,
  
  To answer your question, with a twist.
  
  No I didn't support Aoun back then, but I support him now.
  
  I don't support Jumblatt now.

  By  Hassan, at 12:13 PM  

• People say that Jumblatt is an inconsistent weathervane, but aren't the Druze usually on the side of the Sunnis?

  By  Anonymous, at 12:16 PM  

• Hassan: the question is, diid you support Jumblatt back then ;)
  
  Anon: i wouldn't say that Jumblatt is unpredictable, but it is his (past) inconsistency that everyone talks about.
  
  Ghassan: I read the comments that are posted on this blog, and I do think about them. My question is: how are you so sure that Jumblatt is driven by those great ideals that you listed?

  By  Lazarus, at 2:06 PM  

• I really don't understand how people can trust Jomblatt. Yes u may agree with some of his positions but trusting is insane.
  For example.
  Lets assume that I grew up all my life supporting Walid Jomblatt's principles and stances for over 25 years. So all my political beliefs, regarding Syria and so, stemmed form Jomblatt stances. 25 years later I am told that all that I stood for and fought for was a MISTAKE as Walid Jomblatt has been claiming. He apologised for taking those positions that I grew up supporting thinking it is the right thing to do.
  
  I say this because of a Dirzy friend of mine. We have been friends for over 12 years and have always argued (he is pro Syria and Im anti). he was so passionate about his stances and defended them with justifications and true beliefs. Now he is ashamed to look me in the face and say U WERE RIGHT.
  
  As for Aoun, he always claimed that Hizbullah should be disarmed through dialogue, even when he supported 1559, he stated that. Aoun was always against the Syrian occupation until it finished. He has never changed.
  
  This anti-syria, pro-syria thing is in the past. It was relevant when the Syrians were controlling Lebanon and commending those who had the courage to speak out against them, not those that enjoyed and flourished and became millionaires under Syrian occupation and changed when Syria's fate became inevetable.
  
  In Lebanon u will alwys have people or parties supporting Syria or USA or France or Iran, or or or or or.
  
  No one can change that. They criticise Aoun for having a dialogue with HA. why? Didn't they join allegiance with HA during the elections? Aren't they in a national dialogue with HA? Isn't dialogue what we want and not civil strife and tension? Isn't the best way to keep away foregn influences is by being strong from the inside. We cannot all be united, after all in democracies there are always governments and opposition, but at least let us not shoot down dialogues and agree on certain points so we can move on.
  
  At last, what is wrong with Aoun being President, he has all the attributes for that, political program, overwhelming chrisitan support, support form other religious sects, no enemies, strong in a sense that no one can control him like a puppet with strings. What do u want better?
  
  Cheers
  Chabel

  By  Anonymous, at 2:07 PM  

• The question isn't if you trust jumblat or aoun or whoever, but do you support him..
  
  There's a big difference between the two.
  I guess i support the ideas more than the persons.. As long as anyone supports my ideas i'll support him. when he doesn't i wont.. Aint that what democracy is about? shouldn't the leaders cry out loud what the people are saying? or is it the other way around should the people say what their leaders are crying out?
  
  Should a jumblat supporter shift positions with him? the same applies for Aoun.. Or should Jumblatt change positions to match that of his supporters?
  
  I think that both Aoun and Jumblatt diehard supporters lack maturity for shifting positions with their leaders blidly (It doesn't matter what is the position).
  
  So today i support Jumblatt maybe tomorrow i'll support someone else. Untill the day politicians start supporting my ideas rather than me supporting theirs.
  
  Sorry for typos

  By  Chief, at 2:38 PM  

• To Chief.
  
  Totally agree with u. Jomblatt wants to demarcate the Lebanese borders, so does the Genral. He wants to unseat Lahoud, so does the General but differentiate on the process or the way to unseat him. Jomblatt wants to dis-arm hisbullah, Aoun does too, but the difference is Aoun stresses it through dialogue and not with war-like speeches or by force. Regarding Syria, come on it doesnt make u a hero or courageous to bash Syria now. It seems that Jomblatt wants to change the Syrian regime. Aoun has always stressed that once Syria withdraws, then to each his own, lets have good relations with our neighbour, AS LONG AS THEY ARE OUT.
  
  Even though we see alot of similarities, at the same time their is a great divide. Ever since aoun stepped into Lebanon's airport after exile, it has been a campaign to marginilise him and or isolate him. I see that Hariri and Jomblatt, just by the way things are cannot work at the level with another leader, whether Geagea or Aoun. Geagea is merely in the back shadow of these guys. This is the reason why no matter what the stances are Aoun and Jomblatt-Harriri will never become Allies in all sense of the word.
  
  cheers
  Charbel

  By  Anonymous, at 3:21 PM  

• I don't have any problem with Jumblatt, Aoun Hariri Geagea... or any of our politicians... In fact i really don't care about them. But today, the guy who is saying what i want to hear is Jumblatt. Perhaps Aoun has the same positions, but he's not letting me know it as clearly as Jumblatt. For the boarders, i don't know aouns position. For Lahoud, I completely disagree with the theory that says that he should go only after a substitute is designed. It's against every single democratic logic. For Hizb, I don't care if it's the right way or not, but jumblat is letting people know what i think. In my opininon his fiery speaches had the benefit of breaking the taboos which is necessary for any dialog to take place. Anyhow they're dialoging now about their weapons.. Let's see where it will lead. But i'm not against the principle of using force to make Hizb comply with lebanese laws. Finally, do i want the Syrian regime to fall? Hell yes. Not only that, i think it's the only way to have peace in Lebanon and the only way to disarm Hizb peacefully.
  
  Now you know my positions on these issues. If any politicians shares them with me, i'll support him. If not, i don't care.

  By  Chief, at 3:51 PM  

• lol sorry for the grammar, typos et al. but it's been a long day

  By  Chief, at 3:54 PM  

• Ghassan,
  
  
  “Jumblatt … is driven by what is good for individual liberty, a modern democratic state and the sovereignty of an independent nation.”
  
  
  I’ll assume that this is true. Jumblatt will deviate. I am sure of it because he does not care about democracy if it undermines his political power and his sect’s representation. It is just a highly marketable tag that he can use to attract more people, and most of his pro-American stands are more related to a power politics than anything else.
  
  
  Maybe you are faithful and idealistic. So you may actually withdraw your support when he does deviate. You will probably feel really good about yourself for this wonderful democratic practice. You will be one of few. All those tens of thousands who will follow Jumblatt do not care about his stand.
  
  
  I am also wondering why you don’t impose “the question of trust” and “personality” on Walid Jumblatt, Saad Hariri, and the others calling themselves “March 14”. Remember these are the same people who, among many other things, voted for the Syrian-imposed elections law, twice! They all admit to giving in to various pressures and to conceding our country’s national interest for the past fifteen years. How much “trust” does that earn them? Obviously the only exception is Saad Hariri. Does anyone know what he’s been doing for the past fifteen years? Whatever it is, maybe we need, and deserve, some info on that to judge properly.
  
  
  I am asking you to look beyond what Jumblatt is saying. This is still the same old Jumblatt, with all his corruption and opportunism, and he’s practicing both. There’s no war right now in Lebanon, not yet anyway, but if there were, he’d be carrying out war crimes and massacres.

  By  Hassan, at 4:28 PM  

• I supported Aoun then. I'm getting a bit queasy about him now.
  
  I never supported Joumblatt before. I agree with his position today, but distrust him.
  
  I am basically a sovereignist. I believe nothing will be achieved before Lebanon is fully sovereign on all parcels of its territory.
  
  Whether I agree with these two or not: Aoun needs to do a lot before I totally distrust him. Joumblatt needs to do a lot before I can totally trust him (if ever, given his record).

  By  JoseyWales, at 4:36 PM  

• Hassan,
  I am not going to rehash positions on which I have posted many times in the past but I feel that i owe you the courtesy of a response. You do bring up very legitimate issues and my quick and brief answer is that the potential revolution of March 14 was stolen by all the traditional politicians. Obviously we , the people, are to blame for allowing them to coopt the revolution that was meant to bring real change and not only a perfunctory one.
  
  We need to elect fresh faces and hold them accountable and we should refuse to vote on the basis of sect. Instead we should make our judgement based on the ideas of those running for office. I also happen to believe that single districts will prevent or at least curtail the coat tail phenomenon. Why treat Jumblatt any different than the others? He was the most instrumental at the early stages of March 14 and he appears to have had a sincere change of heart/ Only time will tell whether the change is genuine . But what is important is to recognize that many other world thinkers have moved from the extreme left to the center and a few from the extreme right to thecenter. People change and I am willing to assume that Jumblatt did change. Once I find out that he has not then I will withdraw my support. It is as simple as that. Remember also that if we dissaprove of a person for being , say pro slavery, then we cannot reject that persons position when he/she renounce slavery. Yes, we cannot have our cake and eat it too.

  By  Anonymous, at 5:03 PM  

• joumblatt is a wind taker, i m totally agree with chabel in his first statement.
  
  however i must add that i would never ever trust joumblatt.
  i admire him turning every time the wind is turning and trying to get an advantage over it, but i think that his interest of weakening the state in order to keep a political role is against the general interest of Lebanon.
  he should learn to put himself aside and leave his people independant from feodal interferences.
  
  @EvilConCarne
  we cannot forget that in the past, joumblatt even collaborated with the murderers of his own father. he s ready to sell his own soul to gain something in return.
  i m very doubtfull about his interet.
  besides that u might forgive the past but not forget it.

  By  Anonymous, at 9:47 PM  

• @ evilconcarne
  
  first of all, if u re reading french:
  "Les alliés de Damas, sont représentés par les chefs des deux mouvements chiites: Nabih Berri, président du mouvement Amal et du parlement, et le chef du Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah. A mi-chemin entre Damas et Washington, le général chrétien Michel Aoun aux ambitions présidentielles affichées et qui a récemment conclu une alliance avec le Hezbollah.
  Et, les chefs de la majorité parlementaire, Saad Hariri, fils de l'ancien dirigeant assassiné Rafic Hariri, Walid Joumblatt, député et leader druze, devenu le plus farouche adversaire de la Syrie, et Samir Geagea, chef des Forces libanaises (autrefois alliées d'Israël)."
  http://fr.bluewin.ch/infos/index.php/mon/i/060313071320.rajd2dko/Liban:_le_dialogue_reprend_dans_le_desabusement&cid=0
  
  whatever the local media are saying, it s a mistake or a desinformation, as far we re having an axe of shareholders-politicians in this country. politics should not be able to have any share of any newspaper.
  
  since the departure of the syrian from lebanon, their regime is agonising. they are still remaining in power bcz the international community is not finding a correct replacement without the muslim brotherhood threat which would open a second front against the US troops in iraq and a new front against Israel.
  therefore the dicotomy btw pro and against syrian is belonging to the past and the situation right now is just the epilogue of the history of the lebanon liberation but not revolution.
  
  the revolution didnt start yet.
  the lebanese should revolt themselves against those who leaded to the situation of the civil war, those who were manipulated by foreign countries during the occupation IE. joumblatt, Geagea etc...
  
  therefore saying that aoun is collaborating with the syrian is not an actual statement taking in considerating the actual situation but the past situation.
  
  the right question shoudl be the following:
  what are the actual threats against lebanon and who are the possible targets of theses threats.
  
  noticing the situation of iraq, with zarkaoui speeches about his will to destabilise both lebanon and syria in order to open news fronts to be able to transform the entrapment or the iraqi fundamentalist vaccum into an advantage, linking theses action of destabilisation to the shooting of rockets against israel from lebanon in an attempt to make the hezbollah blamed for it
  
  linking another threat which done by the saudian in order to build a rempart against a pro shiit arabic iraq, in syria with a pro saudian regime (which would be ruled by khaddam as his interview on al arabya clearly showed) and therefore by a future direct of indirect reinfluence of the new syrian regime in lebanon in order to secure itself
  
  the threats changed in 2005 to 2006, passing from a threat of a syrian occupation to different kind of threats.
  
  we must encourage not a direct owerthrown of the syrian regime and god knows how much i hate them, but being pragmatic, i dont want to sponsorise a new syrian occupation of lebanon or a destabilisation of lebanon, but we must encourage an opening of the current regime to the democraty to reach in the middle/long term a democratic system which as is claiming hudginton would not be able to conduce war.
  
  are the current 14 march politicians aware of theses games?
  no, they dont have a global image of the middle east.
  if they have such global vision, they wont say it as far, it s against the interest of their godfathers.
  
  are the people claiming to belong to the 14 of march aware of it?
  no, they are emotionally too attached to their leader, in feodalistic way or whatever which way to be able to reach such conclusion
  
  are the aounist aware of it?
  no, as far as the FPM lackes of media to explain it, their PR are bad and they are really suffering of the current disinformation campain against them.
  
  last point, lebanon doesnt have to be on any side now; lebanon doesnt have to be on any side.
  lebanon has to stands where the lebanese interest stands and not where the interest of a feodal leader is.
  
  we are lacking to reach this target of political instruments:
  our weak parlementary constitution is leading more to a oligarchy system which is clearly showed by asking the first question.
  we cannot stand to be divided when a theocraty and a dictature are our neighbourhood, we need reform to strengh our executive without however falling in the trap of dictarure.
  
  who is proposing a program to reach that point?
  joumblatt ?
  no he fighted the marotinism as well as he ll find in the future the sunnitism as it will marginalise his political role and therefore would be a threat to the quasi feodal power he has on his community.
  
  i m personaly not voting for the person but the program.
  
  joumblatt besides that he was a windtaker everytime the wind was turning, is not inspiring any confidence to deal with the threats and the objectives that lebanon must achieve as far he doesnt have a program.

  By  Anonymous, at 12:15 AM  

• just to add few things
  
  if u re following once a political science 009 class (which is the first political class given), u would know that any politician want to reach power. this is normal, there is nothing wrong about it an here i have to admit that at least aoun is honest about that, contrary to the others.
  
  the judgment of this politician is through his program before he s getting elected and through his actions when he ll be elected.
  
  another point.
  joumblatt cannot reach presidency, but he obtained power inside his community.
  when he ll be ready releasing his feodal power we ll talk again about the non interest he has in the political field.
  
  third and last comment.
  who are the candidates?
  i dont want to replace a syrian puppet by someone else puppet.
  if we want strong president, this president should gather and enjoy the larger possible popular support.
  
  who are the challengers of aoun?
  nassib lahoud, besides the fact he wasnt elected, was the man who sold lebanon in the front of the international community to the syrians in 90, i used to like the guy till i knew that.
  
  boutros harb: besides that he wasnt elected by the batroun but by the other region, he called my father to ask him not to vote against him if he wasnt voting for him. it s not a presidential behaviour. more then that he was designated as a possible replacement puppet of lahoud by ghustom ghazale (cf the first mehlis report) my personal interest would dictate me to be for that guy but the general interest of lebanon doesnt.
  
  nayla moawad and samir franjieh didnt have the popular support of the regions they were elected by.
  
  mallat: he doesnt have any popular support.
  
  to remind u about something, which i ll expose soon my blog wrotten in french, the smaller is the circonscription and the closers to the people are the parlementary.
  this is why the 14march stallions-candidates are not having trust besides that i know some of them personally and i dont trust them already in real life

  By  Anonymous, at 12:45 AM  

• Evilconcarne, and others
  
  The "general" factor, is just one factor. I am wary of military types, especially in Lebanon. But there are always exceptions, and like Ghassan likes to say people can and do change.
  
  DeGaulle, Washington, Eisenhower, Chehab and others were generals and did relatively well, if not very well by their countries. (I am not comparing Aoun to those yet).
  
  Also, can we stop with the canard "Aoun will do anything to be president"?
  
  I disagree with his recent moves, but to say the above is disingenuous and slanderous.
  
  The man could have been president instead of Lahoud back in the early 90's by just saying "yes" to Syria. So NO, he won't do "anything" to become president. He might do "some" things and you may disagree with these, but at least you gotta give him that.

  By  JoseyWales, at 4:04 AM  

• JW, you bring up a good point. He may do alot to become president, but saying that he would do "anything" doesn't quite tell as it is.

  By  Lazarus, at 9:56 AM  

• Lazarus,
  
  My answer is yes. I was compassionate with Aoun the same way I am now compassionate with Jounblat. Aoun has turned up to be a huge disappointment. I hope Jounblat won't end up the same.
  
  Regards

  By  AbdulKarim, at 12:11 PM  

• /mdr
  
  joumblatt is an excellent wind taker
  
  if joumblatt was an airplaine, we would be able to make several round of the
  earth without turning on the engines or a single drop of fuel, just with the
  wind.
  
  let us make make something for the humanity, lets sell joumblatt to boeing
  or airbus for them to make more economical , less polluting airplanes.

  By  Anonymous, at 2:10 PM  

• At 2:21, Lebanese Pride wrote:
  
  FRENCH EAGLE.... listen retard I've read your posts and they are ALL THE SAME!!! Jumblatt is "an excellent windtaker, bla, bla" HOW MANT TIMES CAN ONE PERSON WRITE THE SAME THING!
  
  ------
  
  There was more to that comment, but it has been *censored*.
  
  The reason I deleted your comment Lebanese Pride is because of what you wrote. Have some respect next time.

  By  Lazarus, at 2:27 PM  

• @ evilconcarne and a lazarus
  
  i know i m repeating myself but there are things that i want to make clear.
  
  to make the things more clear for you
  
  i m not believe someone that is a wind taker. i would more having always doubt about his behaviour, searching for his own interest then for the general interet.
  
  find the own interest of joumblatt and u would understand that he is not acting for lebanon.
  
  his interest are to divide in order to not to be marginalise by any kind of leadership.
  this is what happened during the war by his fight against the maronitism and the way he allied himself last year with the hezbollah to decrease the power of the sunnitism.
  he is a coward:
  he could have been stoping the war in 78, and therewere talks with bashir gemayel through samir franjieh and marwan hamadé, he got a meeting with hafez el assad and he retracted himself from the deal.
  today his life is threatened therefore he though that going to the political side he stands now would save his life.
  
  i m not also going to believe a guy that sponsors the communitarism through his feodalistic action. he is action like what we can call.
  
  i can have convergencies of interest with him at a point or another, but definitly were precocious and not giving my trust at all.
  
  one time, in business, i had to make some deals with someone i knew it was an asshole.
  i just told him:
  "i know u re an asshole,we have to work together,but dont mess with me or you would regret it"
  we worked together for some times but when i noticed he wanted to put a knife in my back, i can made him paying hard for it.
  
  joumblatt many time, putted a knife in the back of the lebanese,
  during all the war, from 78 to the time he worked with the syrian,i remember his political position in 2000 that were marvellous as well against the syrian occupation etc... just before the election, i remember in 2000 some of friends going to shake his hands in the restaurant called Ciao in Monnot where we were having dinner there, congratulating him for his courage etc... and i remember the disappointed that they got after that when joumblatt just returned to his bad habits.
  i can therefore work with him sometimes or anothers but definitly not trust him.
  
  one thing i can say now:
  in november 2004,long time before all the troubles and the problems, i ve met some guys that are lebanese but living abroad, i cannot say more then that, they told me that the syrian problem would be over in april 2005 and guess what? in april 28, officially the last syrian soldier left lebanon.
  this is why i believe that all what is happening in lebanon right now, is like a chess game, where all the moves where already scheduled and unfortunatly not by our dear political class,
  to answer you evilconcarne, i think that the candidate is already choosen whatever are the result of the dialogue and i think that the only thing keeping lahoud in baabda is the non acceptance by some politicians of that candidate.
  and till they wont accept it, there wont be any progress in the situation.
  
  about this, i cannot say more. but i m very excited to see how the chess game is being played when someone's already knows the next move his competitor is going to play
  since that time, i m not believing in coincidences as well, but also not about plots or entrapments as far as i dont think that joumblatt's action, the 14 of march's action etc... are a combustion to all the events we passed through but a catalysis to events that were anyway going to happen since the US invasion of Iraq , their action just accelerated a reaction that was already occuring.
  to come back on joumblatt's action, i admire his opportunistic sense and his intelligence of feeling theses moves to happen and that s all

  By  Anonymous, at 1:24 AM  

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