Managing the Gathering Storm
I've put off reading the ICG report I had previously linked to until I had some time to actually go through it. It was carefully and well-written, and touched on alot of the major points that are in discussion now, and was not provocative in the sense that it did not deal with unsubstantiated statements. If anything, you should read at least the first two pages, which list a set of recommendations to the different parties currently involved in Lebanon.In the conclusion, the report quotes Michel Samaha:
Can we return to normal after Mehlis and with the explosive issues shaking this part of the world? Can we immunize ourselves from blowback from the Middle East? We can, but for that we need a strong state, a solid economy, and genuine security. We cannot if our domestic issues become tactical instruments in a confessional struggle, and if the outside world uses this as an opportunity for manipulation.
Well, can we?
The ICG presents a rough answer in the beginning.
To weather the coming storms, the country needs sustained calm to design and implement reforms of the economy, judiciary, public administration, and security agencies as well as electoral law. For that, it desperately needs both economic and institutional support from the outside world and protection from the struggles in which that world is engaged. This is no easy task, as Iraq’s sectarian conflict spills over, the UN turns to Resolution 1559’s provisions on disarming Hizbollah and Palestinian militias, and Mehlis’s next report threatens to expose more Lebanese and Syrian complicity.
The U.S. and France have shown surprising unity, and have worked within a deliberately multilateral, UNcentred framework. It is a good formula to retain, which means focusing on supporting reforms, allowing the Mehlis investigation to run its independent course, and letting Lebanon deal with Hizbollah’s status without undue pressure.
With Syria’s withdrawal, Lebanon has turned an important page. But so many of the fundamentals that promoted Damascus’s intervention in the first place remain: deep sectarian divisions, widespread corruption, political gridlock, and a tense regional situation. Syria’s troops have left, but a stable, democratic transition has yet to begin.
posted by Lazarus, 5:07 PM
3 Comments:
Samaha, and many others, have got it backwards. I.e. We have to solve our problems THEN we can have security/prosperity.
Samaha's comment sounds like that statement by Amine Gemayel to the world community in the 1980's:
Give us peace and we will dazzle you. (I.e. solve our problems and we will dazzle you).
Nobody's going to solve OUR problems.
By
JoseyWales, at 4:24 AM
The ICG report says at one poit: "It is crucial that Lebanon be as secluded as possible from international and regional conflicts that are turning this into a battle for Lebanon's custody rather than a struggle to build its state". What is the responsiblity of the Lebanese themselves in preventing others from constantly being able to meddle in our affairs? Unfortunately many of us are willing partners in the schemes of others. We cannot keep on blaming the world for all of our problems.
By
Anonymous, at 7:05 AM
Ghassan, most of the problems we have are our own problems, and bringing other to solve them, which may make things "good" now, will create other problems in the future. I'm generalizing here, but it seems to be the case that the different parties look to outside forces for help, not for the sake of Lebanon, but for the sake of defending their vision of lebanon against other visions. It's happened before, and although I didn't want to see it this way now, its happening now again.
By
Lazarus, at 9:33 AM
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