What's Next?

Assuming that the implementation of either system is of the same complexity, which formula is better for Lebanon: confessionalism, or secularism?

It might be easy to look back at past eras in our history and say that confessionalism must be removed, based on historical incidents, but that alone is not sufficient. Other factors come into play that must be taken into consideration before banishing a "system" into the "failed" bin. This is a common approach used by some people when they say "the left is not good enough", basing their analysis on what has happened in USSR, Cuba, etc. Is that a fair approach? Is that enough to say that center-left governments don't work?

Confessionalism failed miserably in the past. The questions we should be asking are: what factors accentuanted its failure? Are those factors present today? If those factors aren't present, is it viable as a system in the long run? Is its alternative better for stability?

By removing the initial assumption, implementing secularism is much more intense and harder to accomplish than leaving confessionalism. However, if the switch is worth the effort, then the current "revolution" should continue - a change of personnel does not imply a changed nation. If the only formula that would allow Lebanon to "work" is secularism, then that should be taken by the horns.

If confessionalism is key, then Lebanese have to ensure that the current political and social environment is conducive to a secure and stable state. One negative aspect of this system is the possible lack of opportunity. I come from a minority that does not allow me to be more than an MP. I don't mind that, but what is interesting, is if my child is born here, in the US, he can become president, while in Lebanon, he cannot. If we are to emulate anything from the US system, it is this: equal opportunity. Can this exist with confessionalism? Confessionalism may make sects feel "comfortable" that they have some power, but it can also make them feel "threatened" if they don't have enough. How can we overcome this?

It is often said that a confessional system does not allow the "best man for the job" to earn his position. I won't get into that, but what I do want to mention is this: a secular state does not imply the people have one voice, or that the people themselves don't live in sectarian communities. Simplistically, it means that the civil status of an individual will trump his religious status. Is that dangerous for Lebanon? If so, how?

The main question that Lebanon has to answer is: How viable is Lebanon in its current nature?

Is the sectarian divide within Lebanese communities so strong that a confessional system is needed to keep Lebanon in existence? How much political energy will be used to sustain this system, instead of being used in other endeavors? If the divide is strong enough, would it be preferable to physically divide Lebanon?

Alot of questions ... some which may be insignificant, and others which may be relevant to the current nature of Lebanon. Should they be answered? Should time be spenting on studying the positives and negatives of the different governmental alternatives? Or is the current system good enough for there to be no need for this entire discussion?

posted by Lazarus, 7:10 PM