Public Survey: Support for Hezbollah

The Beirut Center for Reasearch and Information has released a new public opinion survey consisting of five questions. As I could not find the original report, I have collected their results from Al-Akhbar (which only presented the general statistics for the questions), and "Angry Arab", who provided the sectarian makeup of the answers for only a few of the questions.

Q1: Do you believe the resistance has emerged victorious from this war?

> Yes: 72% -> Sunni: 70.8%, Shia: 96.3%, Druze: 62.8%, Christian: 59.7%
> No: 28%

Q2: Should the resistance support the Lebanese army in the event of an Israeli attack on Lebanon?

> Yes: 72%
> No: 22.7%

Q3: Do you think this war was a result of the capturing of Israeli soldiers, or was it a premeditated plan?

> Premeditated: 84.6% -> Sunni: 81.6%, Shia: 92.7%, Druze: 76.7% , Christian: 79.7%
> Captured Soldiers: 13.2%
> Other: 2.2%

Q4: Are you confident that the internation forces can deter any Israel attacks?

> No: 64.9%
> Yes: 32.5%
> Unknown: 2.6%

Q5: Do you believe in the possibility of peace with Israel?

> No: 74.5%
> Yes: 25.5% -> Sunni: 21.3%, Shia: 1.9%, Druze: 32.6%, Christian: 41.9%

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Two years ago (June 2004), the same center released the results of another survey concerning Hezbollah. I'm only referencing the relevant questions, and I'm ignoring the sectarian makeup of the answers.

Q1: After Hezbollah's success in freeing the prisoners, do you support the the resistance in freeing Shebaa Farms?

> Yes: 70%
> No: 23%
> Unknown: 7%

Q2: If negotations between Hezbollah and Israel with regards to the release of Samir Qantar fail, do you support Hezbollah in capturing Israeli soldiers in order to release him?

> Yes: 66%
> No: 20%
> Unknown: 14%

Q3: Do you support the Lebanese government acquiecing to American demands with regards to the resistance, if the USA threatens to penalize Lebanon both economically and politically?

> No: 68%
> Yes: 9%
> Answer depends on demands: 13%
> No comment: 10%

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I cannot verify the results presented as I am not familiar with the center's methods. However, I have an issue with the desire to quantify opinion among sects only, as opposed to grouping individuals among geographic location, age groups, etc. Myths in several other countries regarding the effects (not to be confused with correlation) of race and class on "life" were dissolved once a different grouping was studied (and a more quantifiable causality was discovered); it is possible that this would also hold true with Lebanon. It is time the "common-sense" assumption that sects supercede other groupings be challenged.

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posted by Lazarus, 1:07 PM